Hockey Question

[Kegwithlegs]

Does anybody know the percentage of a kid making the NHL? 1 in ????

[T_Totler]

I don't know the exact odds, but with the number of teams today, and the resutling dilution of talent, the odds are better today than they were back in the old 6-team days (pre 1967)

[sargpep]

I would guess about 1 out of 5000

[BillD]

I don't know the exact odds, but with the number of teams today, and the resutling dilution of talent, the odds are better today than they were back in the old 6-team days (pre 1967)

I would disagree with this statement, simply because, there are far more kids playing hockey today, than there were in the 6 team days. In addition they are better trained, conditioned, skate faster and better, and are bigger than they were in those days. Add to this the number of kids available from the US and Europe, and the odds are probably that it is equally difficult (or harder) to gain a position in the NHL. The new attention to the rules in the NHL, will give some players an opportunity to play now, who wouldn't have a few years ago because they were considered too small. The odds are really long, far worse than 1 in 5000.

[T_Totler]

I would disagree with this statement, simply because, there are far more kids playing hockey today, than there were in the 6 team days. In addition they are better trained, conditioned, skate faster and better, and are bigger than they were in those days. Add to this the number of kids available from the US and Europe, and the odds are probably that it is equally difficult (or harder) to gain a position in the NHL. The new attention to the rules in the NHL, will give some players an opportunity to play now, who wouldn't have a few years ago because they were considered too small. The odds are really long, far worse than 1 in 5000.
I'll take your point that yes, there are more kids playing hockey today, but do you really think the likes of Domi and Brashear would have made it all the way to the NHL back in the six, or even 12-team days?

[Glen]

I'll take your point that yes, there are more kids playing hockey today, but do you really think the likes of Domi and Brashear would have made it all the way to the NHL back in the six, or even 12-team days?

I would have to say yes T as when the Leafs were building back in their hay days, it was said that if you couldn't beat them in the alley, you couldn't beat them on the ice. This was from that Hockey series recently broadcasted on TV. Most of the players were from mining towns on the Canadian Shield.
Also there are far more players as BillD stated and the number of spots available compared to the increase in the number of players doesn't make for an advantage for todays players. Infact I would say it is the opposite IMO.

[BillD]

I'll take your point that yes, there are more kids playing hockey today, but do you really think the likes of Domi and Brashear would have made it all the way to the NHL back in the six, or even 12-team days?

Do you remember Bob Kelly, who played for Philidephia? He could only turn in one direction, when he left the Oshawa Generals, and made the team the first year, and had a long career considering his skill level. The other side is that with the game being what it was when those 2 players came in, more skilled players were overlooked, because they were too small, or not tough enough.

[rileydog]

Does anybody know the percentage of a kid making the NHL? 1 in ????

I would think this question is almost impossible to answer.

Right now i can think of zero Japanese, Chinese, Australian, New Zealand, Iranian(to name a few) that are in the NHL right now...But in 15 Years...Who knows?

15 years ago there were zero Kazakhstan's in the league.

So a 7 year old would realistic be at least 13 years away....how many teams, rule changes, etc. would also need to be factored in.

How many 7 years old players dream of making the NHL ?
Answer: 100% :)

[Kegwithlegs]

How many 7 years old players dream of making the NHL ?
Answer: 100% :)[/QUOTE]

I can agree to that . That is the age of the kids I coach ...Sad thing is most of there parents have the same dream . Man are they in for a rude awakening if the kid goes to the GTHL .

[rileydog]

I can agree to that . That is the age of the kids I coach ...Sad thing is most of there parents have the same dream . Man are they in for a rude awakening if the kid goes to the GTHL .[/QUOTE]

I coached fastball for years, and I know all the best Coaches/Managers/Umpires/Referees are in the stands....Just ask them!!!!

I use to keep a handful of coaching applications on hand, for those special parents..

Please list...
# of years coached
teams coached
league-tournament-provincial-national championships obtained
level of NCCP obtained

Then if the actually have the nerve to pipe up again...ask if the have turned in their application?