Liberals at 40% in recent poll

[Yogi]

MONTREAL (CP) - The federal Liberals had the support of 40 per cent of respondents in a new poll - virtually the same level of backing they received in rolling to their majority government in 2000.

The Leger Marketing survey, conducted Sept. 6-11, pegged Conservative support at 24 per cent, while the NDP stood at 15 per cent and the Bloc Quebecois at 13 per cent.

The numbers were reached after distribution of the 20 per cent of respondents who were undecided.

Some observers said the results are another sign that Prime Minister Paul Martin's Liberals have bounced back from the sponsorship scandal, which had them plunging in the polls earlier this year as the Gomery commission heard allegations of widespread financial corruption within the party's Quebec wing.

"It shows that even though they (the Liberals) went through hard times last spring, it seems that they're slowly coming out of it," said Anne-Marie Marois, Leger Marketing's research director.

Marois said the poll revealed strong growth for the Liberals in Western Canada, including a jump of 16 percentage points in Alberta in two months and an increase of 14 percentage points in British Columbia.

In Ontario, the Liberals outstripped the Conservatives by a 46-27 margin, while the Bloc Quebecois continued its dominance in Quebec, leading the Grits by a 55-34 score.

The poll of 1,500 respondents is considered accurate within 2.6 percentage points, 19 times out of 20, meaning Liberal support could be as high as 42.6 per cent or as low as 37.4 per cent.

The margins of error for the regional breakdowns are bigger.

The Liberals formed a minority government in June 2004 with 36.7 per cent support, compared with the 29.6 per cent for the Conservatives.

In the November 2000 election, the Liberals romped to their third consecutive majority with 40.8 per cent, while the Canadian Alliance and the Conservatives totalled 37.7 per cent.

Martin has promised to call an election within 30 days of Justice John Gomery tabling his final report, which he now says will occur next Feb. 1.

While Martin could be sorely tempted to call a snap election this fall if Liberal support continued to grow, both Marois and political scientist Francois-Pierre Gingras believe that would backfire on the prime minister because of his repeated promises to wait for Gomery's final recommendations.

"I think there's a risk there and it would be much safer to live with another few months of the purgatory of a minority government to try to reap the benefits of some popular legislation this fall," said Gingras, who works at the University of Ottawa.

Marois agreed.

"He (Martin) is better off waiting and trying to increase satisfaction and then they can go because to go now into an election would mean he would not respect his promise.

"And as long as he waits at least until the Gomery report is out and as long as the Conservatives still have Stephen Harper leading the party, his chances can only improve."

Both observers said they believe Gomery's final report would have a negative effect on the Liberals only if he points the finger directly at Martin, who has said he was not aware of any financial skulduggery in the sponsorship program when he was finance minister in the '90s.

While the poll had the Liberals way out in the lead in popular support, 53 per cent of respondents expressed dissatisfaction with Martin's government, compared with 40 per cent who were satisfied.

The highest dissatisfaction levels were in Quebec (72 per cent) and Alberta (57 per cent).

But another positive for Martin is that dissatisfaction in seat-rich Ontario dropped nine percentage points to 45 per cent since the beginning of the summer.

Gingras said the Conservatives and the NDP have to find the right issues to regain the momentum they had earlier this year.

"There's only so much mileage you can make on the sponsorship scandal."

The poll results might put more pressure on Harper, whose leadership has recently been challenged by some Tories. A Leger survey in April had the Conservatives at 34 per cent.

http://cnews.canoe.ca/CNEWS/Politics/2005/09/18/1222599-cp.html

[Tim]

I think Wally will sink into a deep depression should the Liberals get a majority again for 4 years.
;)

[Bogie]

As long as the "New" Conservatives are foolish enough to hang onto Harper as leader, things will just keep rolling along like they are.

[Tim]

True. they really need to bring back the 'progressive conservatives' before we might have a proper opposition (or a new government).

[Mr. Apollo]

True. they really need to bring back the 'progressive conservatives' before we might have a proper opposition (or a new government).
I was never really a PC supporter but I was much closer to their old beliefs of liberal social policies and conservative fiscal policies. Now days they are conservative on social and fiscal policies.

[eddyk]

As long as the "New" Conservatives are foolish enough to hang onto Harper as leader, things will just keep rolling along like they are.

But he is in position to sweep Alberta and in the end that is all that matters.

[Bogie]

But he is in position to sweep Alberta and in the end that is all that matters.If that is "all that matters" as Harper's goal, then he wouldn't have entered federal politics. The target of the "federal" New Conservatives is federal leadership, not Alberta separatism.

Quickest way to achive Liberal defeat is to find a new charismatic leader and revitalize the old Conservative party. Maybe Harper is good at what he does, but he is a dud marketing-wise. Martin is laughing all the way to the bank as long as Harper remains leader.

[eddyk]

His goal was to make Canada safe for Alberta. A move to Alberta Conservative leader is a possibility once Klein leaves.

And it is not that he is a dud marketing-wise, it is the people advising him, his own awkwardness with his public persona and his prickly nature that alienates people. He is probably the only male in Alberta who does not have a decent cowboy hat
http://www.warrenkinsella.com/images/harper1.jpg

[Bogie]

"You can't make a silk purse out of a sow's ear"

You either have it, or you don't - and Harper just doesn't have it. That "BBQ circuit" picture says it all ... LOL

[debbie]

"Harper grooms image on barbecue circuit"



Whadda a maroon. :rolleyes:

[jovin]

C'mon guys, don't make fun of Harper just because he's wearing his cowboy hat backwards.

[Tim]

lmfao.

[Swordfish]

I was thinking of a caption for that picture :d but I cant mention it :hst:

[eddyk]

C'mon guys, don't make fun of Harper just because he's wearing his cowboy hat backwards.

That's his "Home-boy on the range" look.

[Walter]

As long as the "New" Conservatives are foolish enough to hang onto Harper as leader, things will just keep rolling along like they are.

I tend to agree with you Bogie but it is just not Harper and I don't think the PCs have enough time to get their act in gear so get ready for another Liberal government.......the next few months will tell us whether it will be a minority or majority government. All we are getting is promises and media ops right now.

[Tim]

there is a 'PC' party?

I think the 'new Conservatives' have had PLENTY time to get their act together since choosing Harper as their leader. It's time to ditch the reformers and bring back the Pc party.

[Bogie]

Joe "Who?" Clark had it right on the money. He didn't want the alliance and knew what the result would be. Time for "System Recovery". Alliance/Reform and Conservatives should be separate parties. It would be good for the political system as a whole. We need both for the "check and balance" of the political spectrum. No one is really happy with what has transpired with the two party merger. Old Alliance/Reform people are disallussioned, and old PC members are discouraged and disappointed.

Until this happens we don't have a political selection system in Canada - just confusion and no real choice.

[eddyk]

But the old federal Progressive Conservative Party had zero credibility in western Canada. Another legacy of the Mulroney years. There was simply nobody within the PC's at the time of the merger (with the possible exception of Jim Prentice (http://www.jimprentice.ca/Bio.htm) who was still a political neophyte) who had credibility oin western Canada.

[Bogie]

But the old federal Progressive Conservative Party had zero credibility in western Canada. Another legacy of the Mulroney years. There was simply nobody within the PC's at the time of the merger (with the possible exception of Jim Prentice (http://www.jimprentice.ca/Bio.htm) who was still a political neophyte) who had credibility oin western Canada.That is correct, but no reason to give up and hide within a non-popular party in the rest of Canada.

Recovery happens. The PCs needed to find a new leader and rebuild from the ashes. Instead they gave up. Just beacuse they had lost many seats did not mean they had lost their popularity with the people. The percentage was still high, but not distributed enough to get re-elected. Regroup and attack!

What we have now is a political side-show. And, as long as it continues, the Liberals will rule.

[eddyk]

But in the early 90's, popular support for the PC's was in single digits in BC. Alberta which had been the bedrock of the old PC Party was rejecting the Grand old Party. Deborah Grey (under the Reform Party banner) won her first federal seat in in Beaver River in 1989 easily out polling the PC candidate even though she had no political background.

By this point, Stephen Harper, who started his political career as an aide to PC MP Jim Hawkes, had left the party to help found the Reform Party.

The fed PC Party in Saskatchewan & Manitoba were struggling, partially due to political scandals and mismanagement within the provincial parties but also due to federal party policies which appeared to favour central Canadian interests. (Ex. Mulroney's decision to give a defense contract for maintenance of the F-18's to Bombardier even though a Winnipeg company had submitted a lower tender)

[Tim]

But in the early 90's, ....

This is 2005, and people are tired of the Liberal party, and will never warm up to the likes of Steven Harper or his band of reformers.
This, is as good a time as any, for the old PC party to rebuild itself.

[eddyk]

Rebuild itself from what? There is zero interest in the west for a new PC Party. Zero interest in Quebec. Outside of rural Ontario and the Maritimes, there is little nostalgia for the Progressive Conservative Party.

Obviously some people here do not appreciate the level of hatred and distrust that westerners had for the old Progressive Conservative Party.

[Tim]

is it more than say.... the current Liberal party?

15 years later isn't time to rebuild trust? The Liberal party certainly came back bigtime after Turner was wiped out, and I thought at the time no one would ever vote in another Liberal party after the Trudeau years.

I think if you gave westerners another option to get the liberals out, and Ontarians another option besides the rebranded reform, you might be surprised.

[Bogie]

Leading up to the 2000 election the PC party was losing steam. It needed a new charismatic leader and failed to find one.

As Tim mentioned, Canadians are disheartened by our federal Liberals, but no alternative is on the horizon. It is obvious that the so-called "New" Conservatives are disjointed, have no real platform, and are anti-Quebec. You cannot be against Quebec (francophone) and win the election.

What a revitalized, rejuvinated, and "new start", party of the old style PCs needs is a spit and polished, gleaming teeth, shiny-haired, new boy or girl, from Western Canada, who will not alienate Ontario and Quebec. That person will just have to smile, sound good, able to speak french without a western twang, and not sound like a western separatist who wants to deport all immigrants and float Quebec out into the Atlantic Ocean! No big promises that we are tired of hearing - just be Canadian "through-and-through".

They have some ground to cover after that 2000 election, but can regain a big chunk of popular vote if they follow the above formula.

[Tim]

What a revitalized, rejuvinated, and "new start", party of the old style PCs needs is a spit and polished, gleaming teeth, shiny-haired, new boy or girl, from Western Canada, who will not alienate Ontario and Quebec. That person will just have to smile, sound good, able to speak french without a western twang, and not sound like a western separatist who wants to deport all immigrants and float Quebec out into the Atlantic Ocean! No big promises that we are tired of hearing - just be Canadian "through-and-through".

you would think that this would be so clear to a party, but no.

[Bogie]

you would think that this would be so clear to a party, but no.Marketing 101 - but politics gets in the way.

We have a weird political election process. We do not vote-in our "leader". We just vote for local representatives to parliament. The leader of the party that garnished the most "representative" votes gets in.

BUT ... if the leader is a dud, we don't vote for the local party representative!

Before we vote for that party representative, we must "like", "becharmed", and be "captivated", by the "leader". Look at Trudeau-mania ... it wasn't his platform - it was Trudeau himself.

The PC rebirth needs a western "Trudeau". Odd comparison "Liberal leader to Conservative Party". Even if the Alliance (aka: New Conservatives) found a new leader, it still has an unorganized bickering infrastructure. The New PCs is a marriage that's gone bust.

[frostyone]

Problem is the Reformers have control of the party now, and they're not going to give it up.

Orchard was right:

the merger " led to a denial of a moderate alternative to the voters of Canada.
I don't think we've yet come to grips with the magnitude of what's happened in giving the great party that founded Canada away to the Canadian Alliance.
Mr. Harper and the group around him,are in complete control "



"But the old federal Progressive Conservative Party had zero credibility in western Canada. Another legacy of the Mulroney years."

I don't think Mulroney was too popular in Ontario either. lol

[frostyone]

"Marketing 101"

Well, partially, as eddyk's photo shows.
As naming yourself CRAP did.
As putting Day in a wetsuit did,
These are not the brightest lightbulbs when it comes to marketting.

But it's not just marketting.
It's their policies.
There's just no way around it.

The country has elected such magnetic Conservative personalities as Joe Clark before.
And would again.

[Shaman]

I probably have no right in posting here cause I know little to nothing about inner party politics works. However I can only say this much, I have no-confidence no matter who is in charge because, you can change the government all you want, health care, schools, jobs and trade with foriegn nations is all the same. We are fighting over how to spend and allocate the nations resources. If there was one promise I honestly wish Paul Martin kept was that the public would know exactly where and what money was being spent. I believe the word was 'accountability' or somethin.

However What i would like to see is a demolition of the PC or new-conservative party, and for them to come out completely 'fresh', what do I mean by this.

Take a serious look at the issues concerning all Provinces in Canada.
-Oil & Gas
-Boreal Forest trees being cut (Soft wood)
-Health Care
-Education (Post Secondary mostly) maybe i say that cause im in it.

There are many more but honestly I think we as the public really need to hit the refresh button and step back and get out our list of National Issues, Provincial issues and Municipal issues and then once we have a solid idea of where we are as individuals and communities we can then look at what our government is doing in regards to policy making to make these things happen.

Yeah I know Im just 21 and believe me I know the world isn't that easy. But I would like to see a party heck even Harper go on tv, with a fresh attitude and address a 2006 survey of what individuals think on present day issues and where the country should go

I end my post by saying......... when is the last time I recieved a 'what do you think? From the governments of Canada, in the mail.

I MEAN THIS DOESN"T EVEN HAVE TO COST MONEY, JUST SET IT UP ONLINE.

If only we had an open and honest government that truely based it decisions on the democratic opinion of the people. There's no excuse now, we have internet.

but u know what the real problem is......... city tv or city pulse 24 doesn't promote the individual citizen's knowledge enough about our political leaders, processes and party information. I mean I would love to be able to turn on the tv, and see, here is a new policy being considered by our government, it is in response to say the soft wood dispute. The liberal party is here, the PC party sits here etc. These are the facts on both the Us and Can side. City Tv then posts a website giving out all the information and then says, here You can vote yes or no etc.

I guess 'everyone' has the OPTION to go to their Local MP and 'make a difference' but thats a ***** joke

ps. I love City Tv and I am only using them as an example

[Shaman]

ouuuuuu i just remembered the word!!!!

'transparancy'