Tropical / Hurricane Watch

[Digiital]

Ok, that time of the year that I start the Tropical / Hurricane thread.

Looks like we'll be getting alittle wet from Dennis in a few days. But now it looks like there is ANOTHER one brewing off the coast of South America.

http://maps.wunderground.com/data/images/at200505_5day.gif

[Mouse]

Those people sure don't need CNN.

They just have to look outside.

[Ottawaman]

looks like they are being attacked by giant yellow jalepeno :)

[Bogie]

Don't think we will even be getting damp from Dennis .... likes the US too much :)

[Missing Link]

Don't think we will even be getting damp from Dennis .... likes the US too much :)

There's so many things I could say about this...It just feels too easy though.

[Digiital]

Hey whats up with the new board? I can't edit my own post?!

Anyways:
http://www.wunderground.com/tropical/

[Tess]

Hey whats up with the new board? I can't edit my own post?!

Anyways:
http://www.wunderground.com/tropical/

Looks like there's a time limit on editing posts. It's set to 30 minutes.

[Digiital]

I wonder why? The old system work pretty good with allowing people to edit their post after 30 mins. Ah well.

[Tess]

I wonder why? The old system work pretty good with allowing people to edit their post after 30 mins. Ah well.

Lot's of things arent working as they should.

The reload (I'm guessing) may not have had the 'normal' adjustments we're used to.

[Mouse]

I can still 'edit' my post at 10:51???

[Tess]

I can still 'edit' my post at 10:51???

:rrg: I was just guessing after looking at the settings.

Like I said certain things are messed up still, and when they have time, they will address the real problem that is causing all of this.

Patience please.

:)

[Digiital]

Cool someone fixed it. I can now edit the first post I made above.

[andyman]

we could use a few drops from Denis .. last time I looked it was heading straight for us.
Now I'm not sure .. could be a new Nor/Easter ..
http://weatheroffice.ec.gc.ca/satellite/animateweb_e.html?imagetype=satellite&imagename=goes_ecan_1070_m_..................jpg&nbimages=1&clf=1
http://weatheroffice.ec.gc.ca/data/satellite/goes_ecan_1070_m_2005@07@11_18h45m.jpg

[Digiital]

Was camping this weekend and we got SOAKED with the last one, it could have waited a few days :( Sunday of course we have to leave and it was perfect weather.

[andyman]

on second thought .. We are samitched right in the middle of both .. http://www.mysmilie.de/english/green/smilies/confused/2/37.gif

[Digiital]

Looks worse on the above radar then this one

http://maps.wunderground.com/data/640x480/us_rd_anim.gif

[andyman]

Wellcome to Camping ... you guys play cards all day ? ;)
Done many K's hiking in Rain/Snow Gear .... it adds to the trek.

[Bogie]

Andy, last projection I saw, on the weather channel, was that it was going to go west of the Great Lakes and miss us altogether.

[Digiital]

Na. Fishing!!! Or sleep :)

We got more then 30 bass each person, only kept 6 for dinner. They were GOOOOOOOD.
It was none stop hitting...

[andyman]

do we have a game-boy linked to satellite yet ?

[Digiital]

Even in the middle of no where I was able to get a weak signal on the cell and was able to get the weather forcast via GPRS :)

[Dr.Dan]

Unfortunatly, Dennis is being held back by the high pressure that we're under... and will probably track slowly to the east...
No rain for us :(

Of course, as always with the weather, things change... so there's still hope ;)

[Exmortis]

I arrived in Alabama last Saturday just in time to experience Dennis (I'm still in Alabama now). It sure didn't hit as hard as they expected. Got nowhere near Ivan's fury of last year. But the resulting night of tornado warnings and amazingly heavy rain was enough to keep me up in the late hours. :)

Now there's Emilie brewing in the Atlantic, but I don't think she'll come here.

[Digiital]

Here is what some of the computer models think the path is going to be.

http://maps.wunderground.com/data/images/at200505_model.gif

[Exmortis]

Or maybe she might... I'll still be in Alabama if she follows the same path as Dennis. Should be interesting.

[Bogie]

Sunday in Cuba, maybe Tuesday landfall in the U.S.? If all goes as projected. Another one to watch.

[Exmortis]

We're just under severe t-storm warnings and tornado warnings right now from Dennis. Couldn't drive faster than 20mph on the highway it's raining so hard. :)

[Mouse]

Bring some home with you, will you??? :)

[Bogie]

http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/americas/4678431.stm

Eastern Caribbean islands have been warned they could face a hurricane within 24 hours as Tropical Storm Emily approaches, gathering strength. Barbados is the first island in the storm's path, but all of the Windward Islands have been put on alert.

[Digiital]

Take note that the path above has changed.

[Dr.Dan]

Take note that the path above has changed.
Of course.... it always changes with every update.... :ght:

[Digiital]

had to make that note since some people might think it's a static picture.

[Digiital]

http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20050714/ap_on_re_la_am_ca/caribbean_tropical_weather;_ylt=Aig31Be8qgvgrSgsYJ dOob.s0NUE;_ylu=X3oDMTA3b2NibDltBHNlYwM3MTY-

[Digiital]

http://maps.wunderground.com/data/images/at200505_model.gif

[Bogie]

Well, Texas likes everything BIG, so this might fill that desire.

[Mouse]

Only one model shows Texas as being at risk.

But 4 show the Yucatan Peninsula being clobbered.

:wwh:

[Digiital]

lets see who is right in a few hours :)

That other one heading for TX is UKMET I wonder if it's http://www.metoffice.com/ UK based weather

[Kelisis]

Hurricane Emily headed for Texas:

http://cnews.canoe.ca/CNEWS/World/2005/07/18/1137321-ap.html

[Digiital]

VERY COOL Google Maps hack.
http://compooter.org/sandbox/code/google/hurricane/atlantic/?year=2005&storm=gert

[andyman]

VERY COOL Google Maps hack.
http://compooter.org/sandbox/code/google/hurricane/atlantic/?year=2005&storm=gert
very cool

[woodpusher]

yes...very cool

[Digiital]

Here is one that many people will know about:
http://compooter.org/sandbox/code/google/hurricane/atlantic/?year=1954&storm=hazel

Didn't realize that it went back so many yrs.

[Digiital]

It's rock and roll time once agian. Storm #9 of the season.

http://www.intellicast.com/WeatherImg/CustomGraphic/hurtrac.gif

[Mouse]

This one might make Bermuda slightly nervous.

[Digiital]

Looks like it's going to hit FL for sure. But will know better by Sunday I'm sure.

[Digiital]

Here is the track on google maps.
http://compooter.org/sandbox/code/google/hurricane/atlantic/?year=2005&storm=nine

[Digiital]

Looks like the track has changed since I posted the above picture, it's now track more to the north then North West.

[Digiital]

Looks like we might have some rough weather coming our way in the next 3-4 days.

http://www.intellicast.com/WeatherImg/CustomGraphic/hurtrac.gif

[Bogie]

It's fighting the jetstream though, and might not even effect us. Interesting, as it was predicted not to even come that close to land in the first place.

[Digiital]

Another map:

[Digiital]

Another one:
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/refresh/graphics_at4+shtml/145135.shtml?tswind120?large

75 knots = 138.9 kilometers

[Mouse]

I'm confused.

Looks like the projected path of No. 9. But that was back in your post of Aug 5.

Did 9 not 'mature'?

[Bogie]

Looks like a slow mover, but this forecaster offers his comments in the discussion area

http://www.wunderground.com/tropical/at200509.disc.html

There has not been much change in the model forecast
tracks or the models' handling of the subtropical ridge to the
north of Irene and the alleged weakening of the western portion of
the ridge after 72 hours. However...it should be noted that none of
the models create a weakness in the ridge due to a shortwave trough
moving into the mean ridge position. The NOGAPS and UKMET models
erode the ridge as a result of amplifying Irene to a size nearly
the same as that of the synoptic scale high pressure center near
Bermuda...which results in Irene turning sharply northward along
70w longitude by 72 hours. That scenario seems less likely...given
the current size and strength of the Bermuda ridge as noted in
water vapor imagery and upper-air data. The GFS has continued its
trend of dissipating Irene within 48 hours and maintaining an east-
west oriented mid-level ridge from Bermuda westward to the
Carolinas. The official forecast is close to the GFDL and GFDN
solutions...which move Irene farther west and closer to the Outer
Banks of North Carolina...and decrease the forward speed to only 5
kt after 72 hours. The official forecast is nearly identical to the
previous track and remains near the left edge of the model guidance
envelope. It should be pointed out that weak steering currents less
than 10 kt oftentimes results in erratic motion...so a possible
U.S. Landfall by day 5 can not be ruled out at this time.


An upper-low to the south of Irene has been advecting dry mid-level
into the southern portion of the cyclone today...which has caused
the convection to erode and weaken at times. However...water vapor
imagery indicates the low has been weakening and that the mid- to
upper-level flow is gradually becoming southeasterly. Therefore...
deep convection has a better chance of developing later tonight and
Irene could become a hurricane by this time tomorrow. Later in the
forecast period...dry mid-level air remains the primary inhibiting
factor. The SHIPS model has now decreased the peak intensity to
less than 70 kt due to strong low-level anticyclonic flow
surrounding the cyclone as it moves into a stronger ridge. The
official intensity forecast remains above the SHIPS model since the
GFS-based SHIPS model does not hold onto Irene after 48 hours...
which results in an artificially stronger ridge in the GFS model.

[Mouse]

Looks like a slow mover
Ah, #9 was finally named.

Got it.

Man, that is slow.

[54spliff]

Edit

[Digiital]

WOW what a curve ball.


http://www.intellicast.com/WeatherImg/CustomGraphic/hurtrac.gif

[Yogi]

Looks like Florida will be spared this time.

[Mouse]

Well, it did do an end run around Bermuda. ;)

[Dr.Dan]

That's what I thought it would do... given the strong zonal flow of the jetstream.
I had a good feeling that it would turn east before it hit the coast :)

[Digiital]

Get ready for a wet one in a few days:

http://www.intellicast.com/WeatherImg/CustomGraphic/tghur2.gif?

[Mouse]

We should worry.

New Orleans is concerned about sinking, yet again.

And the rain here just picked-up nicely. :d

[Dr.Dan]

As you know, they change that predicted path every few hours... I'll bet that it head more east than the current track they have there ;)


Get ready for a wet one in a few days:

http://www.intellicast.com/WeatherImg/CustomGraphic/tghur2.gif?

[Marsher]

They are predicting Katrina will increase to a Cat 4 before it his New Orleans

[Mouse]

I think 'scared ****less' is the proper term right now.

The major roads north are now one-way only into Mississippi.

[Dr.Dan]

I think 'scared ****less' is the proper term right now.

The major roads north are now one-way only into Mississippi.
Run Forest, RUN!! http://www.addis-welt.de/smilie/smilie/mix/div236.gif

I know... it's no joke :hsh:

[Mouse]

You got that right.

I believe that some parts of New Orleans are 50' below the level of the Gulf of Mexico.

[woodpusher]

Katrina has reached Cat 5 status. Sustained winds of 155mph or higher.
It is not expected to reach Cat 5e with sustained transfers of 1g!

[Yogi]

Here's the latest........

http://www.cnn.com/2005/WEATHER/08/28/hurricane.katrina/index.html

Katrina's packing one hell of a punch :eek:

[andyman]

so this puppy is going to hit us too
.
http://i.a.cnn.net/cnn/interactive/weather/0508/path.katrina/08.28.2005.4.am.jpg

[Dr.Dan]

so this puppy is going to hit us too.
Don't think so... not unless you're down in Mississippi... :hsh:

[Bogie]

Don't think so... not unless you're down in Mississippi... :hsh:Well, we could feel the after-effects. 5 day prediction model

[Dr.Dan]

Well, we could feel the after-effects. 5 day prediction modelOnce it hits land it could go in any direction... predicting where it'll go at this point is purely a guess.
Who knows... it could be the next Hazel :eek:

[Digiital]

CNN reporting that it's a CAT 5 now.


They are predicting Katrina will increase to a Cat 4 before it his New Orleans

[Digiital]

One prediction I just saw, and I'll have to find the map again, expects us to get it around Wednesday and windwso about 30knts, which works out to about 60km/h


Well, we could feel the after-effects. 5 day prediction model

[Yogi]

If a category 5 is the highest number, how would one rate, say, a hurricane with 250 mph winds? ....a 5.0 ++ ?? :rrg:

[54spliff]

"RAINFALL TOTALS OF 4 TO 8 INCHES
ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY INTO THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES
REGION TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY"


http://flhurricane.com/cyclone/wxstatement.php?id=42539

[woodpusher]

If a category 5 is the highest number, how would one rate, say, a hurricane with 250 mph winds? ....a 5.0 ++ ?? :rrg:The Great Red Spot (http://csep10.phys.utk.edu/astr161/lect/jupiter/redspot.html).

[Yogi]

New Orleans orders mandatory evacuation

http://www.cnn.com/2005/WEATHER/08/28/hurricane.katrina/index.html

[Mouse]

expects us to get it around Wednesday
That's good for me. :hst:

I'm driving every day but Wednesday. :tti:

[Digiital]

Oh thats ones easy.

Catagory: Kiss your a$$ good bye


If a category 5 is the highest number, how would one rate, say, a hurricane with 250 mph winds? ....a 5.0 ++ ?? :rrg:

[Digiital]

It's moved over to right above us now.

http://www.intellicast.com/WeatherImg/CustomGraphic/tghur2.gif

[Digiital]

Another projected path

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/storm_graphics/AT12/refresh/AL1205W5_sm2+gif/151733W_sm.gif

[dakotaeagle]

New Orleans orders mandatory evacuation

http://www.cnn.com/2005/WEATHER/08/28/hurricane.katrina/index.html

New Orleans mayor calls evacuation order for city

<SCRIPT language=javascript type=text/javascript> var byString = ""; var sourceString = "CTV.ca News Staff"; if ((sourceString != "") && (byString != "")) { document.write(byString + ", "); } else { document.write(byString); } </SCRIPT>CTV.ca News Staff

New Orleans Mayor Ray Nagin ordered an immediate mandatory evacuation for the city of about 485,000 people, as Hurricane Katrina intensified to a dangerous Category 5 storm, the highest ranking on the Saffir-Simpson scale.

"As most of you know, the storm is intensifying and is still pointed toward New Orleans....I am this morning declaring that we will be doing a mandatory evacuation," a sombre Nagin said at a news conference on Sunday.

"I do not want to create panic, but I do want the citizens to understand that this is very serious and it's of the highest nature and that's why we've taken this unprecedented move," he added.

The storm is churning toward the U.S. Gulf Coast with maximum sustained winds of about 280 km/h on Sunday.

"There doesn't seem to be any relief in sight," Gov. Kathleen Blanco said, joining the mayor.

Blanco said U.S. President George Bush personally appealed for the mandatory evacuation for the city.

While thousands of anxious Louisiana residents jammed freeways in a rush to get out of the storm's path, up to 100,000 people lack the transportation to leave New Orleans.

Officials in low-lying New Orleans have urged residents to evacuate as Katrina threatens to make a second and likely more deadly assault as early as Monday.

The city sits below sea level, making it especially vulnerable to a powerful hurricane.

"With them sitting well below sea level, this is a potential set up for a catastrophic event that has never been seen before," Chris Sisko, a meteorologist at the hurricane center told The Associated Press.

Robert Latham, director of the Mississippi Emergency Management Agency, said the state was recommending evacuations along the coast "and even several counties inland." Mandatory evacuations could follow, he said.

"I've been here 33 years, and we've always been concerned about New Orleans," National Hurricane Center director Max Mayfield said before Katrina reached Category 5.

"I had to let the mayor know that this storm has the potential not only to cause large property damage, but large loss of life if people don't make the right decision."

Katrina has been blamed for at least seven deaths in Florida after it made landfall Thursday -- and it was only a Category 1 hurricane then.

At 8 a.m., the centre of the storm was about 402 km south-southeast of the mouth of the Mississippi River, according to the hurricane center. It was moving west-northwest at about 19 km/h.

The storm has the potential for storm surge flooding of up to more than seven metres, topped with even higher waves, as much as 38 cm of rain, and tornadoes.

Already, Louisiana and Mississippi officials have turned some interstate highways into one-way streets, helping to speed the exodus.


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[54spliff]

Read this over at flhurricane, bottom of page.

http://flhurricane.com/cyclone/showflat.php?Cat=0&Number=51453&page=0&fpart=3&vc=1

Quote from the National Weather Service, New Orleans:<HR>
HURRICANE Katrina (http://flhurricane.com/cyclone/stormhistory.php?storm=12&year=2005)...A MOST POWERFUL HURRICANE WITH UNPRECEDENTED
STRENGTH...RIVALING THE INTENSITY OF HURRICANE CAMILLE OF 1969.

MOST OF THE AREA WILL BE UNINHABITABLE FOR WEEKS...PERHAPS LONGER. AT
LEAST ONE HALF OF WELL CONSTRUCTED HOMES WILL HAVE ROOF AND WALL
FAILURE. ALL GABLED ROOFS WILL FAIL...LEAVING THOSE HOMES SEVERELY
DAMAGED OR DESTROYED.

THE MAJORITY OF INDUSTRIAL BUILDINGS WILL BECOME NON FUNCTIONAL.
PARTIAL TO COMPLETE WALL AND ROOF FAILURE IS EXPECTED. ALL WOOD
FRAMED LOW RISING APARTMENT BUILDINGS WILL BE DESTROYED. CONCRETE
BLOCK LOW RISE APARTMENTS WILL SUSTAIN MAJOR DAMAGE...INCLUDING SOME
WALL AND ROOF FAILURE.

HIGH RISE OFFICE AND APARTMENT BUILDINGS WILL SWAY DANGEROUSLY...A
FEW TO THE POINT OF TOTAL COLLAPSE. ALL WINDOWS WILL BLOW OUT.

AIRBORNE DEBRIS WILL BE WIDESPREAD...AND MAY INCLUDE HEAVY ITEMS SUCH
AS HOUSEHOLD APPLIANCES AND EVEN LIGHT VEHICLES. SPORT UTILITY
VEHICLES AND LIGHT TRUCKS WILL BE MOVED. THE BLOWN DEBRIS WILL CREATE
ADDITIONAL DESTRUCTION. PERSONS...PETS...AND LIVESTOCK EXPOSED TO THE
WINDS WILL FACE CERTAIN DEATH IF STRUCK.

POWER OUTAGES WILL LAST FOR WEEKS...AS MOST POWER POLES WILL BE DOWN
AND TRANSFORMERS DESTROYED. WATER SHORTAGES WILL MAKE HUMAN SUFFERING
INCREDIBLE BY MODERN STANDARDS.

THE VAST MAJORITY OF NATIVE TREES WILL BE SNAPPED OR UPROOTED. ONLY
THE HEARTIEST WILL REMAIN STANDING...BUT BE TOTALLY DEFOLIATED. FEW
CROPS WILL REMAIN. LIVESTOCK LEFT EXPOSED TO THE WINDS WILL BE
KILLED.

[54spliff]

Superdome as shelter debate.

http://www.wwltv.com/local/stories/wwl092304thanh.1295648.html

[54spliff]

Been watching and listening to http://www.wwltv.com/ for a while.
It's a grim situation these people are facing and they know it. From tv presenters to local officals, everyone sounds afraid.
Plaquemines Parish official said of the 20% of population that did not evacuate, to paraphrase, are toast.

[Mouse]

For old farts like me, 38 centimetres of rain equates to 15 inches.

[frostyone]

Was just reading that warning 54spliff
Would scare hell out of me.

, can't get link to work

[Dr.Dan]

Just remembe one thing... the real heavy rainfall is on the east side of the storm...
So as the storm does track through Lake Erie, most of the rain will be state side... through Ohio PA and NY.

Now if that track does move more west.... look out... we'll get allot of rain too.

[frostyone]

from noaa site:

"MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 165 MPH...WITH HIGHER GUSTS.
KATRINA IS A POTENTIALLY CATASTROPHIC CATEGORY FIVE HURRICANE

KATRINA IS A LARGE HURRICANE. HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD
UP TO 105 MILES FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS
EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 230 MILES.

National Hurricane Center
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/

[54spliff]

Was just reading that warning 54spliff
Would scare hell out of me.

, can't get link to work
Which link?

[54spliff]

from noaa site:

"MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 165 MPH...WITH HIGHER GUSTS.
KATRINA IS A POTENTIALLY CATASTROPHIC CATEGORY FIVE HURRICANE

KATRINA IS A LARGE HURRICANE. HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD
UP TO 105 MILES FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS
EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 230 MILES.

National Hurricane Center
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/
A 25-50 mile wide F3 tornado with gusts to F4!

[frostyone]

My fault.
Tried to post direct link to Noaa , Louisiana
Didn't work.
Gotta click thru.

But national hurricane center has lots of links and info

[54spliff]

So does flhurricane.

Video/Audio Links
NOAA Weather Radio out of New Orleans (http://www.nola.com/weather/radio/?/weather/radio/content.ssf/weather)
Hurricane City (http://www.hurricanecity.com/) - Live Audio and Video (http://www.hurricanecity.com/LIVE.ram)
HurricaneTrack/Mark Sudduth HIRT Team (http://www.hurricanetrack.com/)
New Orleans Webcams (http://webcams.neworleans.com/)
French Quarter Cam (http://www.nola.com/fqcam/index.ssf)
Flhurricane.com mirror of the Bourbon st Tropical Isle Webcam (http://flhurricane.com/imageanimator.php?2)
New Orleans Traffic Cams (http://www.dotd.state.la.us/press/traffic_cameras/cameras_no.asp?camera=Cam4)

Flhurricane/Joseph Johnston Mobile Cam (http://flhurricane.com/jjohnston/)

[Digiital]

http://www.datter.com/new-orleans-web-cams/

[Digiital]

Full screen http://www.wwltv.com/perl/common/video/makeadplaylist.pl?title=beloint_wwltv&live=yes

[phoenen]

I have always said Florida and those states would be a nice place to visit, but not during the summer season.

I prefer going in the winter.

Lets put it this way, West u could get earthquakes, south and east hurricanes and north be our pisky neighbours.

Just kidding

phoenen

[Digiital]

Don't put that plywood away Florida. Here comes another one:

http://www.intellicast.com/WeatherImg/CustomGraphic/tghur3.gif

[54spliff]

Jury is out on #13

http://flhurricane.com/cyclone/stormspotlight.php?year=2005&storm=13

http://flhurricane.com/modelanimator.php?13

[54spliff]

Visible Floater Satellite of Katrina (http://hadar.cira.colostate.edu/ramsdis/online/trop_ge_vis_float1_0.html)
Water Vapor Floater of Katrina (http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT/float-wv-loop.html)
Visible Satellite Floater of Katrina with storm track overlays (http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT/float-vis-loop.html)
Animated model plots of Katrina (http://flhurricane.com/modelanimator.php?12)
Spaghetti Model Plot of Katrina from Colorado State (http://euler.atmos.colostate.edu/~vigh/guidance/atlantic/early1.png)

Florida Keys Long Range Radar Loop (http://www.srh.noaa.gov/ridge/amx_N0Z_lp.html)
Mobile, AL Long Range Radar (http://www.srh.noaa.gov/ridge/mob_N0Z_lp.html)
New Orleans, LA Long Range Radar (http://www.srh.noaa.gov/ridge/lix_N0Z_lp.shtml)

[Digiital]

Current wind speeds for Katrina

Wind: 139 knots = 257.42800 kilometers
Wind Gusts: 175 knots = 324.1 kilometers

[54spliff]

Looks like locally > 30 knot winds possible by Tuesday or Wednesday, along with heavy rain.

[Digiital]

Rule of thumb for Knots for those who don't know. Double up the speed in knots then take off just alittle that will give you Km/h.

Example: 30 knots = 55.56 kilometers

[Nave]

lucky thirteen

[Digiital]

This one is just too much, like no one could see this coming from miles away. Breaking news from CNN:

Report: Roof of Superdome in New Orleans, where thousands evacuated ahead of Hurricane Katrina, is leaking rain. Details soon.

[Bogie]

I can see a slightly exaggerated movie coming out of this one, where the waters rise so high that the "seal" in the superdome cracks and water rushes in. "New Orleans - the 2nd Atlantis!"

[Mouse]

1/12th of the roof is gone. More to follow. ;)

[Dr.Dan]

But But But.... the engineers said that the roof would withstand the storm... :tch:

[Exmortis]

The eye's path has shifted to the east a bit which is a bit of good news. Meaning that in the rotation, New Orleans will have winds coming from the north pushing the water away so they might not be getting the storm surges they were fearing in their worst case scenario.

[freddy here]

Don't put that plywood away Florida. Here comes another one:

http://www.intellicast.com/WeatherImg/CustomGraphic/tghur3.gif

Would that be the Robert E. LEE ???

[Digiital]

Path is slowly moving to the North and placing Toronto to the East side of the track.

http://www.intellicast.com/WeatherImg/CustomGraphic/tghur2.gif

[Bogie]

Path is slowly moving to the North and placing Toronto to the East side of the track.
Looks like we get a bit of a heavy dew on Wednesday.

[Digiital]

Projected path of the wind:

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/refresh/graphics_at2+shtml/152544.shtml?tswindloop?

[54spliff]

Keep an eye out here.

http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/

US only, but still usefull.

[54spliff]

Not sure what this means for Eastern Great Lakes.

" ...SYNOPSIS...

HURRICANE KATRINA IS FORECAST BY NHC TO MOVE NWD THROUGH THE LOWER
MS VALLEY MONDAY AND INTO THE TN VALLEY AS A TROPICAL STORM BY THE
START OF THIS PERIOD. THE REMNANTS ARE FORECAST TO CONTINUE NEWD
INTO THE OH VALLEY TUESDAY. A VERY STRONG SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND ITS
ACCOMPANYING COLD FRONT WILL MOVE EWD THROUGH THE NRN PLAINS. AN
UPPER TROUGH WILL LINGER OVER SERN CANADA AND THE GREAT LAKES AREA."

I dont think New Orleans is out of danger yet. Consider that Katrina is forecast to travel up the Mississippi Ohio valleys.

...TN AND OH VALLEYS...

KATRINA IS FORECAST TO BE A TROPICAL STORM AT THE START OF THIS
PERIOD AND CONTINUE NEWD THROUGH THE TN AND OH VALLEYS. SEE LATEST
DISCUSSIONS FROM NHC ON KATRINA. STRONG LOW VERTICAL SHEAR PROFILES
WILL PERSIST E OF THE CENTER AND POTENTIAL MAY ALSO EXIST FOR THE
STORM TO INTERACT WITH A PRE-EXISTING SURFACE BOUNDARY ACROSS THE OH
VALLEY...WHICH COULD FURTHER ENHANCE LOW LEVEL SHEAR. ONCE THE STORM
BEGINS TO ENTRAIN DRYER MID LEVEL AIR...THE CHANCE FOR SURFACE
HEATING AND DESTABILIZATION SHOULD INCREASE. STORMS MAY INTENSIFY
DURING THE DAY E AND NE OF THE CENTER...ESPECIALLY WHERE CLOUD
BREAKS PERMIT SURFACE HEATING. THE THREAT FOR ISOLATED TORNADOES IS
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THIS PERIOD WITH GREATEST THREAT EXPECTED
TUESDAY AFTERNOON OVER THE TN VALLEY AND DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON
AND EVENING ACROSS PARTS OF THE OH VALLEY. ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND
MAY ALSO ACCOMPANY THE STRONGER ACTIVITY.

[Skyguy]

It appears Katrina may not have been Armageddon for New Orleans... but reports are beginning to come in of at least 54 deaths in Mississippi. (Thirty of those deaths apparaently in one particular apartment complex.)

No doubt this event won't have anywhere near the mind boggling death toll and suffering as the Boxing Day Tsunami of last December, but it could still be a grim count - the amount is anyone's guess right now.

Back in '92, Hurricane Andrew was directly responsible for 26 deaths, but including indirect loss of life the death toll was 65. It looks like Katrina may break that number with ease.

Stay tuned...

[sybil]

New Orleans didn't get off so well after all. A large breech of a levee has the city flooded.
http://news.monstersandcritics.com/northamerica/article_1044739.php/Katrina_kills_80_New_Orleans_floods
http://www.bayoubuzz.com/articles.aspx?aid=4864

[54spliff]

New Orleans didn't get off so well after all. A large breech of a levee has the city flooded.
http://news.monstersandcritics.com/northamerica/article_1044739.php/Katrina_kills_80_New_Orleans_floods
http://www.bayoubuzz.com/articles.aspx?aid=4864
Potentially a catastrophic situation. Water is rising, it's a race against time. La governor mentions possible formulation of plans to evacuate citizens.

[54spliff]

Potentially a catastrophic situation. Water is rising, it's a race against time. La governor mentions possible formulation of plans to evacuate citizens.
Clarification.
http://www.cbsnews.com/stories/2005/08/29/national/main802131.shtml

[Bogie]

What is happening down there defies imagination. The end result will be far worse than we are seeing now. I have a good friend who lives on Bourbon Street in New Orleans. I haven't heard from him, but I presume he evacuated to Fort Lauderdale where he has a home and his father lives.

He moved to New Orleans to continue his writing, and focus on the history of New Orleans.

Our prayers are with everyone in the hurricane ravaged area, and that the worse fears of loss of life are not realized. Just thinking of having to cope with such a disaster is mind-numbing.

[54spliff]

A burgeoning human tragedy.
I find this ominous, "An urban search and rescue team from California, with experience in deep and swift water rescues, is also on the way. They were being staged in Lafayette."

http://2theadvocate.com/stories/083005/new_update1001.shtml

[54spliff]

The news only gets worse.
http://www.wwltv.com/

[54spliff]

The news only gets worse.
http://www.wwltv.com/

****ALL RESIDENTS ON THE EAST BANK OF ORLEANS AND JEFFERSON REMAINING IN THE METRO AREA ARE BEING TOLD TO EVACUATE AS EFFORTS TO SANDBAG THE LEVEE BREAK HAVE ENDED. THE PUMPS IN THAT AREA ARE EXPECTED TO FAIL SOON AND 9 FEET OF WATER IS EXPECTED IN THE ENTIRE EAST BANK. WITHIN THE NEXT 12-15 HOURS****

[Yogi]

Sure pales in comparison to the storm we got a couple of fridays ago doesn't it?

[Yogi]

Cars stuck on overpasses with nowhere to go :(

[Mouse]

Now looting guns and ammo out of Wal-Marts.

Could turn to mob rule very easily.

[ctcgirl]

Now looting guns and ammo out of Wal-Marts.

Could turn to mob rule very easily.

Already has been a gang war 1 officer got shot in the leg

On CNN tonite they were showing and interviewing the looters and they switched the camera's into the store where people were actually pushing shopping carts and gathering up the merchandise and guess who was right amongest all the other people none other than 3 of New Orleans finest police officer, in there bright blue uniforms pushing a shopping cart and filling it up..
even the journalist was shocked.

[Skyguy]

Now looting guns and ammo out of Wal-Marts.

Could turn to mob rule very easily.In some areas of the Big Easy, it already has.

What shocked me was footage of people pillaging sporting goods stores for sweat shirts & running shoes and electronics stores for DVD players & TV's! What the hell are these people thinking!!?? What bloody good is any of that junk going to be in a flooded city with no clean water, food or even electricity???

They're going to shut your city down for God knows how long and move you all the way to Texas!! Don't you think you'll look just slightly suspicious with a garbage bag full of Nike running shoes and two boxes of DVD players??

You're not going to have any food to eat for days!! If you're that desperate, ransack the local grocery store for non-perishable canned goods and bottled water!!

[SuperFriend_XP]

In some areas of the Big Easy, it already has.

What shocked me was footage of people pillaging sporting goods stores for sweat shirts & running shoes and electronics stores for DVD players & TV's! What the hell are these people thinking!!?? What bloody good is any of that junk going to be in a flooded city with no clean water, food or even electricity???

They're going to shut your city down for God knows how long and move you all the way to Texas!! Don't you think you'll look just slightly suspicious with a garbage bag full of Nike running shoes and two boxes of DVD players??

You're not going to have any food to eat for days!! If you're that desperate, ransack the local grocery store for non-perishable canned goods and bottled water!!

good call. that must be terribly embarrassing being seen on international tv, looting!

[Brent]

Considering the sitaution, I'm sure they don't care. Fight for your life.

[Skyguy]

good call. that must be terribly embarrassing being seen on international tv, looting!Most couldn't care less. In one bit of footage, a reporter interviewed some arrogant guy who was stealing as much as he could. He made it clear that he was having a jolly old time & thought that everyone should now take advantage of the 'bounty' of goods available.

I even think that he mentioned something about those looting the store were just the poor getting 'payback'... or some stupid comment like that.

Disgusting...

[Mouse]

The first looting I heard about was at a Winn-Dixie.

It thought "so what, that food will be garbage anyway".

I have a different view for other looting.

[Digiital]

I agree to the point that it's all going to waste anyways, BUT the fact is if the gov allows people to go into the stores get anything you want, then every tom dick and harry is going to think at a later date that it's ok to just take what you want. There will be no control.

Everyone was warned of what might happen, and they had the chance to get out of the city, yes I realize that not everyone has a car, and who would want to pickup a hitchhiker.



In some areas of the Big Easy, it already has.

What shocked me was footage of people pillaging sporting goods stores for sweat shirts & running shoes and electronics stores for DVD players & TV's! What the hell are these people thinking!!?? What bloody good is any of that junk going to be in a flooded city with no clean water, food or even electricity???

They're going to shut your city down for God knows how long and move you all the way to Texas!! Don't you think you'll look just slightly suspicious with a garbage bag full of Nike running shoes and two boxes of DVD players??

You're not going to have any food to eat for days!! If you're that desperate, ransack the local grocery store for non-perishable canned goods and bottled water!!

[Bogie]

The police in New Orleans have the authority to commandeer food and clothing and other "life sustaining" supplies to distribute to the needy. This includes gaining access to stores to do this. If they are taking supplies, than that is required, then they are simply part of the problem. Not being there is hard to judge.

The police are, in most cases, unable to stop the looting. For a few reasons: 1. One police officer and several looters, some with weapons - common sense tells you not to interfere and risk your life; 2. No place to put anybody that they do arrest. Most police are simply, as safely as possible, stopping looters as they can and getting them to dropped the goods and leave the store. This is a job for armed national guards.

The National Guard will have their hands full over the next week or so. They need to 100% evacuate the city. Many of these people, some armed to the teeth, will not want to go. Expect gun battles and death from it.

Considering that almost all the people remaining, who should have left when told to do so, are just regular people, like you and me. They rode out other hurricanes, protecting their homes and possessions, and could not imagine, in their wildest dreams/nightmares, that this could happen. They are scared, made the mistake of staying, and are just wanting to get out to safety and start again.

Thieves are taking things that they can't take with them. Things that are useless (like electronics), but the sick mentality exists.

This whole scenario is unimaginable except in the minds of movie makers, who have created such "pictures" in the past. Their imaginations come-to-life in what has just happened.

Remember "Waterworld" and other city devastation movies? A bit of dejavue.

[Exmortis]

Katrina: Before and After sattelite imagery...

http://www.globalsecurity.org/military/facility/new-orleans-imagery.htm

[Digiital]

That server must be down can't connect:

http://www.digitalglobe.com/sample_imagery.shtml

1meter image:
http://www.digitalglobe.com/images/katrina/new_orleans_msi_aug31_2005_dg.jpg

If you have google earth then here is a file you can import.
http://services.google.com/earth/kmz/24331100_2Kx2K.kmz
Story of this file:
http://digg.com/technology/Google_Earth_starting_Katrina_sat_imaging._


Katrina: Before and After sattelite imagery...

http://www.globalsecurity.org/military/facility/new-orleans-imagery.htm

[Exmortis]

Working fine for me. I just checked...

[Digiital]

Working for me now as well

[Bogie]

Thanks for the Google Earth file Digiital! Wondered if some shots would be available using Google Earth.

[frostyone]

Getting crazy in New orleans,for sure

"New Orleans evacuation halted amid gunshots..shots were fired at a military helicopter involved in the evacuation.
The first bus to turn up at in Houston arrived unexpectedly early. Later, authorities said it had been commandeered and driven there by its passengers
Dozens of carjackings were reported, including a nursing home bus and a truck carrying medical supplies for a hospital.
http://www.ctv.ca/servlet/ArticleNews/story/CTVNews/20050901_new_orleans_evac_050831/?hub=TopStories

This is an interesting description.
From a New Orleans ISP that stayed behind and is keeping an online journal.

"It is a zoo out there though, make no mistake. It's the wild kingdom. It's Lord of the Flies."
http://mgno.com/

[Mouse]

Thanks for that link, Frosty. :)

I watched Miles O'Brien interview the governor of Louisiana this morning, and was Miles ever nasty. I hope the governor has a gun permit.

[Bogie]

Thanks for that link, Frosty. :)

I watched Miles O'Brien interview the governor of Louisiana this morning, and was Miles ever nasty. I hope the governor has a gun permit.
LOL - I watched that. Good thing it wasn't "face-to-face" or we might have seen a good fist fight. That was totally unprofessional of Miles and uncalled for. He lost control of his interview and defeated it's purpose. How many more interviews will the Governer allow from Miles - not!

[Mouse]

A lesser man (me) would have just walked away from the mic.

[Mouse]

Just watching CNN, and I feel it is now time for Marshal Law.

Anyone with a gun will be shot on sight.

These hoodlums are stalling help getting in, and people getting out. The result could be many more deaths then the few who would be taken out before the word spread.

[Digiital]

I thought that had declared Marshal Law already.

[Mouse]

You're right. I just read that in his blog. :hsh:

I guess I mean summary trial and execution. :ght:

[54spliff]

Considering the sitaution, I'm sure they don't care. Fight for your life.
I agree with this perspective. It's survival of the fittest and the people (poorest of the poor) know it.
Of course currently, I'm enjoying all the mod-cons, so my perspective of situation on the ground is...well I cant even begin to comprehend enough to have perspective.
I'll say it again, perspective.

[54spliff]

Martial not Marshal.

[Dr.Dan]

Yep, martial law... Marshal Law is a superhero (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Superhero) comic book (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Comic_book) series. http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Marshal_Law
You may be looking for the concept of martial law (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Martial_law), where a military authority is used to administer justice.

[54spliff]

VERY COOL Google Maps hack.
http://compooter.org/sandbox/code/google/hurricane/atlantic/?year=2005&storm=gert

Excellent, thank you. Heard a discussion CFRB recently and Hurricane Hazel was mentioned regarding category, and was it really a hurricane? Looks to me like Cat1.


http://compooter.org/sandbox/code/google/hurricane/atlantic/?year=1954&storm=hazel

[Dr.Dan]

Excellent, thank you. Heard a discussion CFRB recently and Hurricane Hazel was mentioned regarding category, and was it really a hurricane? Looks to me like Cat1.
A Cat 1 is still a hurricane... but as you can see the next update is was down to a tropical storm...
None the less, the worst southern Ont has ever seen... other than tornados ;)

[54spliff]

A Cat 1 is still a hurricane... but as you can see the next update is was down to a tropical storm...
None the less, the worst southern Ont has ever seen... other than tornados ;)

Next update is rather north of Lakeshore Boulevard.

[54spliff]

Next update is rather north of Lakeshore Boulevard.
I'm guessing Sudbury or North Bay.

[54spliff]

I'm guessing Sudbury or North Bay.
Still packing 60 knot winds.

[Yogi]

Just watching CNN, and I feel it is now time for Marshal Law.

Anyone with a gun will be shot on sight.

These hoodlums are stalling help getting in, and people getting out. The result could be many more deaths then the few who would be taken out before the word spread.

I totally agree with Martial Law. It's bordering on anarchy over there :(

Heard a news report tonight that said some women were raped and others beaten by thugs who are wreaking havoc at a convention centre with 15,000 people holed up in there. Apparenly 88 cops tried to get in to restore order but were beaten back by these gun-toting thugs.

They desperately need the army and/or National Guard in there with unequivocal orders to shoot on sight and ask questions later.

[54spliff]

New Orleans, the new Fallujah?

[Yogi]

New Orleans, the new Fallujah?
I heard an interview on 680 news tonight from a returning marine who served in Iraq and said New Orleans was "worse than Baghdad"

[Yogi]

When it's all over, in months or perhaps years from now, one of the questions that is bound to be raised is the adequacy of the levee system in and around New Orleans.

From what I've heard on various news reports, those levees were designed to handle up to a category 3 hurricane only. This event shows clearly that just one category 5 hurricane can level the city so the levee system in this case was almost useless. Methinks you'll hear a lot of finger-pointing about that down the road.

[Exmortis]

When it's all over, in months or perhaps years from now, one of the questions that is bound to be raised is the adequacy of the levee system in and around New Orleans.

Do you really think they will rebuild New-Orleans? Really? I mean, who in their right mind will want to invest in a city below sea level? Knowing that it might happen again... And which insurance company will agree to insure again the people living below sea level? After all that money paid in the disaster...

I think New-Orleans is lost forever.

[Yogi]

Do you really think they will rebuild New-Orleans? Really? I mean, who in their right mind will want to invest in a city below sea level? Knowing that it might happen again... And which insurance company will agree to insure again the people living below sea level? After all that money paid in the disaster...

I think New-Orleans is lost forever.
I agree with you, but to hear everyone tell it, they want to rebuild no matter how long it takes.

People are attached to their communities. This is why people refuse to leave Florida in spite of all the hurricanes they've had and will continue to have due to their geography. They just rebuild and carry on despite the risks.

I know I'd leave permanently, but that's just me.

[Exmortis]

If they rebuild it, New-Orleans will not be the gem city it used to be. The character through its architecture is lost and no amount of rebuilding will bring that back. Very few cities in America are what I'd call gem cities and New-Orleans was one of them. It's really sad. The rebuilt city may have the same name, but it won't be the same city. Hence why I said that New-Orleans is lost forever. :(

[Yogi]

If they rebuild it, New-Orleans will not be the gem city it used to be. The character through its architecture is lost and no amount of rebuilding will bring that back. Very few cities in America are what I'd call gem cities and New-Orleans was one of them. It's really sad. The rebuilt city may have the same name, but it won't be the same city. Hence why I said that New-Orleans is lost forever. :(
I agree completely.

I visited there about 20 years ago and loved every minute of it. I have a photo album full of pics. It was definitely a trip I will always remember. I was there for almost 2 weeks.

[Mischief007]

In their right mind, they should not rebuild the city. Start from scratch. I know that's hard but $25 billion now and maybe another $25 billion in a couple of years until the next hurricane?? We all now weather these days has been more violent than ever before. Maybe next time it will be a Tsunami or something to that effect. You never know but a city below the sea level has a chance of flooding again.

Last I heard they said that New Orleans was supposed to get another 9 feet because one more levee was supposed to fail.

[Skyguy]

Do you really think they will rebuild New-Orleans? Really? I mean, who in their right mind will want to invest in a city below sea level? Knowing that it might happen again... And which insurance company will agree to insure again the people living below sea level? After all that money paid in the disaster...

I think New-Orleans is lost forever.It would be nice to travel back in time to tell the founders of New Orleans (~1718) and Venice, Italy (~1,600 years ago) that building towns & cities on marshlands isn't a smart idea...

I don't think they'll abandon the city for good. Although badly damaged, there's just too much infrastructure & history to write off.

They'll rebuild, however it definitly won't be the same city.

[Yogi]

They'll rebuild, however it definitly won't be the same city.
It will be New Orleans in name only, and since they won't be be able to recreate what was lost, it will become a ghost town. Tourists just won't bother visiting. Mark my words. Unfortunate but true.

[Exmortis]

They'll rebuild, however it definitly won't be the same city.

I doubt you'll find one company who will want to invest...

[Yogi]

I doubt you'll find one company who will want to invest...
Good point. After this, the insurance premiums for those businesses in the area are going to be so prohibitively high that they will relocate elsewhere.

[54spliff]

If they rebuild it, New-Orleans will not be the gem city it used to be. The character through its architecture is lost and no amount of rebuilding will bring that back. Very few cities in America are what I'd call gem cities and New-Orleans was one of them. It's really sad. The rebuilt city may have the same name, but it won't be the same city. Hence why I said that New-Orleans is lost forever. :(
This is so true. It's still early in hurricane season, and a near future tropical weather event would render the whole rebuilding question moot.
No immediate threat here, but Floridians, through experience, would advise alertness.

http://flhurricane.com/

[54spliff]

One thing gets my goat. Various Governors, ex Presidents, present Presidential spokemouths, the President Himself, media pundits and the Soviet Socialist Republic, all claim not to have seen this coming?
Obviously not TCM members,

[Dr.Dan]

One word... " Politicians" ;)

[Exmortis]

Good point. After this, the insurance premiums for those businesses in the area are going to be so prohibitively high that they will relocate elsewhere.

Assuming there will be insurance companies willing to insure. It's costing them billions right now.

[Skyguy]

It's obvious that everyone in the affected states is going through a tough time... But it shocked me this morning when I learned that 2/3rds of the New Orleans Police Department has quit!

No wonder law & order broke down. There was virtually nobody to enforce it!!

In recent years, crime & corruption has seeped it's way into that city's police department. So corrupt, that there has been a justifiable loss of confidence in amongst the citizens in their law enforcent. This is yet another ugly mark on the authorities in that area.

(However... I do recognize that the police officers have family too that they want to keep safe, and that 5 days of 24/7 duty - in a shooting gallery - have been extreme harsh in the extreme.)

[Bogie]

The US federal authorities should have expected this kind of lawlessness in New Orleans. This policing required would be military and similar to "martial law". The local authorities failed to prepare for this in their emergency plans, and the US government failed to anticipate and drop troops in immediately to maintain the security of the city and it's peoples.

"Homeland Security" did not pass the test - failing grade.

Police are not trained for such things happening.

Another thing .... how come the forestry service is not water bombing these burning buildings? They have helicopters than can pinpoint waterbomb and planes that could waterbomb the warehouses along the waterfront.

[Rustynut]

The US federal authorities should have expected this kind of lawlessness in New Orleans. This policing required would be military and similar to "martial law". The local authorities failed to prepare for this in their emergency plans, and the US government failed to anticipate and drop troops in immediately to maintain the security of the city and it's peoples.

"Homeland Security" did not pass the test - failing grade.

Police are not trained for such things happening.

Another thing .... how come the forestry service is not water bombing these burning buildings? They have helicopters than can pinpoint waterbomb and planes that could waterbomb the warehouses along the waterfront.
No contest there, they're worried about terrorists and Mexican illegals entering the country and that is all they seem to focus on. As for the waterbombing of the burning buildings, I too would be wary of flying in an area where snipers take pot shots at aircraft.
I wonder if those snipers are not in fact drug runners taking advantage of the mayhem to move their illicit cargo :vxd:

[Skyguy]

I wonder if those snipers are not in fact drug runners taking advantage of the mayhem to move their illicit cargo :vxd:
I doubt it...

If I were a drug runner (or a terrorist for that matter), I'd use this moment of anarchy to come through unnoticed.

Taking pot shots at police & helicopters would get me noticed...

[54spliff]

However... I do recognize that the police officers have family too that they want to keep safe, and that 5 days of 24/7 duty - in a shooting gallery - have been extreme harsh in the extreme.
It's funny how police officers are expected to go where Angels and fire fighters fear to tread. For many of the so-called deserters, it's a choice between saving family or risking death during anarchy.
The bigger surprise is in the number of police officers still on the job after many days of extreme hardship.

[Digiital]

Wow!!

http://maps.wunderground.com/data/images/tropical.gif

[Exmortis]

Yikes... I'm going to Houston next Sunday... I'm hoping this won't cause any problems. Dennis gave me a good scare last July already (I was in Alabama then).

[Digiital]

And remeber that Katarina was just a Cat 1 when it went over FL and it was 'born' just off the bahamas so TD 16 isn't that far from how Katarina started.

[Digiital]

Here you can see the two in the atlantic.

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/storm_graphics/AT14/refresh/AL1405_PROB34_F120_sm2+gif/144621F120_sm.gif

[Digiital]

And more:

http://www.goes.noaa.gov/GIFS/HUVS.JPG

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT/WATL/IR4/20.jpg

LOOP http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT/nwatl-ir4-loop.html

[54spliff]

Nice little movie/documentary (343mb) from the eye of Hurricane Charley.
http://www.suprbash.org/vip/laxpimpj/HurricaneCharleyDocumentaryComplete.wmv


http://flhurricane.com/cyclone/showflat.php?Cat=0&Number=35014&page=0&fpart=5&vc=1

[Digiital]

NASA Satellites Record A Month For The Hurricane History Books


http://www.nasa.gov/mpg/126449main_katrina_fred_animation.mpg

Here’s one of the most amazing animations from NASA satellites I’ve ever seen. It portrays ocean surface temperatures from June 9 - August 9.

Satellites from NASA and the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) had a busy month in July following the five named storms in July: Cindy, Dennis, Emily, Franklin and Gert.

During July, 2005 NASA and NOAA investigators flew sophisticated research aircraft within and above several of these storms, as part of NASA’s Tropical Cloud Systems and Processes (TCSP). TCSP was undertaken to better understand the processes that lead to the birth and intensification of hurricanes.

“Hurricane Emily was the most powerful hurricane that NASA has ever flown over,” stated Dr. Jeffrey Halverson, Severe Weather Meteorologist, at NASA’s Goddard Space Flight Center, Greenbelt, Md. “Emily and Dennis were both strong hurricanes, meaning Category 3 or higher; it is highly unusual for two strong storms to develop in close succession as early as July in the Atlantic hurricane season.”

[Digiital]

Looks like my Parents are in for alittle wind. I've been watching Nate and this morning he well point north of the Azores but the last update he's been heading south. Towards the islands.

[54spliff]

NASA Satellites Record A Month For The Hurricane History Books


http://www.nasa.gov/mpg/126449main_katrina_fred_animation.mpg

Here’s one of the most amazing animations from NASA satellites I’ve ever seen. It portrays ocean surface temperatures from June 9 - August 9.

Satellites from NASA and the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) had a busy month in July following the five named storms in July: Cindy, Dennis, Emily, Franklin and Gert.

During July, 2005 NASA and NOAA investigators flew sophisticated research aircraft within and above several of these storms, as part of NASA’s Tropical Cloud Systems and Processes (TCSP). TCSP was undertaken to better understand the processes that lead to the birth and intensification of hurricanes.

“Hurricane Emily was the most powerful hurricane that NASA has ever flown over,” stated Dr. Jeffrey Halverson, Severe Weather Meteorologist, at NASA’s Goddard Space Flight Center, Greenbelt, Md. “Emily and Dennis were both strong hurricanes, meaning Category 3 or higher; it is highly unusual for two strong storms to develop in close succession as early as July in the Atlantic hurricane season.”
Hmm...Your link shows Katrina coming ashore on North Gulf after crossing Florida. Amazing imagery.

[54spliff]

Hurricane Ophelia bears watching.
--------------------------------
TCPAT1
BULLETIN
HURRICANE OPHELIA ADVISORY NUMBER 10
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
5 PM EDT THU SEP 08 2005

...OPHELIA BECOMES THE SEVENTH HURRICANE OF THE SEASON...STILL NOT
MOVING...

AT 5 PM EDT...2100Z...THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS EXTENDED
SOUTHWARD TO SEBASTIAN INLET FLORIDA.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE EAST COAST OF
FLORIDA FROM SEBASTIAN INLET NORTHWARD TO FLAGLER BEACH. A TROPICAL
STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR THE NORTHEAST FLORIDA
COAST FROM NORTH OF FLAGLER BEACH TO FERNANDINA BEACH. A TROPICAL
STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE
WITHIN THE WATCH AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 36 HOURS.

INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN NORTHERN AND CENTRAL FLORIDA...AND THE
SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES COAST...SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF
THIS SYSTEM.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AT 5 PM EDT...2100Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE OPHELIA WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 28.6 NORTH... LONGITUDE 79.5 WEST OR ABOUT 70 MILES
EAST-NORTHEAST OF CAPE CANAVERAL FLORIDA.

OPHELIA IS STATIONARY AND A SLOW NORTHEASTWARD MOTION MAY OCCUR OVER
THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS.

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR AND AIR FORCE HURRICANE
HUNTER OBSERVATIONS INDICATE THAT THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE
INCREASED TO NEAR 75 MPH...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. OPHELIA IS A
CATEGORY ONE HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE. SOME INCREASE
IN STRENGTH IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 15 MILES... 30 KM...
FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP
TO 80 MILES...130 KM.

THE AIR FORCE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT REPORTED A MINIMUM CENTRAL
PRESSURE OF 985 MB...29.09 INCHES.

OPHELIA IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 1 TO
3 INCHES ACROSS PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND NORTHERN FLORIDA.

REPEATING THE 5 PM EDT POSITION...28.6 N... 79.5 W. MOVEMENT
...STATIONARY. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS... 75 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL
PRESSURE... 985 MB.

AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER AT 8 PM EDT FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 11 PM
EDT.

FORECASTER PASCH

http://flhurricane.com/cyclone/wxstatement.php?id=44777

[54spliff]

Note well NHC and UKMET models

[54spliff]

Canadian perspective.

http://weatheroffice.ec.gc.ca/hurricane/index_e.html

[Skyguy]

Where the hell did Bush find Michael Brown??? More & more, it's beginning to look like he had absolutely no place as head of that agency.

According to this Time article (http://www.time.com/time/nation/article/0,8599,1103003,00.html), his credentials are suspect.

-For the last 11 years he was head of the International Arabian Horse Association.

-Claimed to be on the board of directors of an Oklahoma nursing home, but nobody there has herd of him in that capacity.

-His Bio says he worked for the city of Edmond, Okla., from 1975 to 1978 "overseeing the emergency services division.". But the head of Public Relations for that city says he was acutally, "assistant to the city manager". Something closer to an intern - with no real authority...

-Claims he held the position of Outstanding Political Science Professor at the University of Central Oklahoma. Howerver in reality he may have been only an "adjunct instructor". Brown was never a member of the faculty at that institution.

... and the list goes on.

(Does this guy even know CPR for goodness sake???)

[Digiital]

I was talking with someone last night about this and he had said that he had helped lobby LOTS of cash for Bush, so of course was "helping" him out by giving the job to Micheal. So it's not what you know, its all about how much you help collect the $$$

[Digiital]

http://www.skeetobiteweather.com/

[dakotaeagle]

I was talking with someone last night about this and he had said that he had helped lobby LOTS of cash for Bush, so of course was "helping" him out by giving the job to Micheal. So it's not what you know, its all about how much you help collect the $$$

Not only that, it isn't that hard to outsmart G. Dubya bush

[54spliff]

HURRICANE OPHELIA INFORMATION STATEMENT ISSUED BY THE CANADIAN
HURRICANE CENTRE OF ENVIRONMENT CANADA AT 3.00 AM ADT WEDNESDAY
14 SEPTEMBER 2005.

THE NEXT STATEMENT WILL BE ISSUED BY 9.00 AM ADT

...HURRICANE OPHELIA EXPECTED TO BRING RAIN TO NOVA SCOTIA AND
SOUTHERN NEWFOUNDLAND THIS WEEKEND...

1. CURRENT POSITION, STRENGTH, CENTRAL PRESSURE AND MOTION

AT 3.00 AM ADT... HURRICANE OPHELIA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE
32.8 N AND LONGITUDE 78.1 W... ABOUT 65 NAUTICAL MILES OR 125 KM
SOUTHEAST OF MYRTLE BEACH SOUTH CAROLINA. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS
ARE ESTIMATED AT 65 KNOTS...120 KM/H...AND CENTRAL PRESSURE AT 982
MB. OPHELIA IS CURRENTLY STATIONARY BUT SHOULD RESUME ITS NORTHWARD
DRIFT EARLY THIS MORNING.

2. FORECAST POSITION, CENTRAL PRESSURE AND STRENGTH

DATE TIME LAT LON MSLP MAX WIND
ADT MB KTS KMH
SEP 14 3.00 AM 32.8N 78.1W 982 65 120
SEP 14 3.00 PM 33.9N 77.4W 980 70 130
SEP 15 3.00 AM 34.8N 76.3W 980 70 130
SEP 15 3.00 PM 35.7N 74.9W 983 65 120
SEP 16 3.00 AM 36.7N 73.1W 985 65 120
SEP 16 3.00 PM 38.1N 70.3W 989 60 111
SEP 17 3.00 AM 39.7N 67.2W 992 55 102
SEP 17 3.00 PM 41.5N 63.3W 993 55 102 BECOMING POST-TROPICAL
SEP 18 3.00 AM 43.5N 58.8W 994 50 93 POST-TROPICAL
SEP 18 3.00 PM 45.8N 53.6W 994 50 93 POST-TROPICAL
SEP 19 3.00 AM 48.4N 47.5W 993 50 93 POST-TROPICAL

3. PUBLIC WEATHER IMPACTS AND WARNINGS SUMMARY

RAIN IS EXPECTED FOR NOVA SCOTIA ON SATURDAY AND SHOULD REACH
THE AVALON PENINSULA OF NEWFOUNDLAND ON SUNDAY. WE ARE CURRENTLY
NOT ANTICIPATING ANY SIGNIFICANT WINDS OVER LAND..HOWEVER..OPHELIA
IS STILL VERY FAR AWAY AND THIS COULD CHANGE.

4. MARINE WEATHER IMPACTS AND WARNINGS SUMMARY

THE SLOPE WATERS SOUTH OF NOVA SCOTIA AND THE GRAND BANKS WILL LIKELY
EXPERIENCE GALE TO STORM FORCE WINDS ON THE WEEKEND.

5. TECHNICAL DISCUSSION

A. ANALYSIS

THE HURRICANE HAS BEEN STATIONARY FOR SEVERAL HOURS..AT LEAST UP
UNTIL THE TIME OF SATELLITE ECLIPSE AT 0345 UTC. THE INNER CORE
CONTINUES TO BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED AND RECENT RECON FIXES
DETERMINED THE CENTRAL PRESSURE HAD FALLEN TO 982 MB. A
CORRESPONDING INCREASE IN SURFACE WINDS IS LIKELY TO FOLLOW. OPHELIA
IS PARKED OVER THE WARM GULF STREAM CURRENT WHERE SSTS ARE ABOUT 28C.

B. PROGNOSTIC

THERE IS ESSENTIALLY NO CHANGE IN THE FORECAST TRACK OR INTENSITY
FROM THE PREVIOUS PACKAGE..SIMPLY FOR THE SAKE OF SIMPLICITY.
THERE ARE HOWEVER TWO FACTORS THAT ARE COMPLICATING THE FORECAST.
FIRSTLY..THE SHORT-WAVE TROUGH CURRENTLY OVER THE GREAT LAKES IS
LIKELY TO MOVE OUT AHEAD OF THE STORM AND ONLY BE ENOUGH TO ERODE
THE RIDGE CURRENTLY TO THE NORTH OF IT..ALLOWING IT TO START MOVING
AGAIN. ORIGINALLY WE THOUGHT THAT THIS TROUGH MAY BE THE ONE TO
PUSH THE STORM TO THE NORTHEAST. SECONDLY..THERE NOW APPEARS TO
BE ANOTHER SHORT-WAVE TROUGH OVER THE ROCKIES THAT WILL MOVE OVER
THE GREAT LAKES EARLY FRIDAY. THIS FEATURE IS FORECAST TO AMPLIFY
ACCORDING TO GEM GLOBAL..ECMWF AND NAM. THAT COULD PUSH THE STORM
NORTHWARD TOWARD NOVA SCOTIA. THIS SCENARIO IS NOT EXPLICITLY SHOWN
IN THE CURRENT FORECAST TRACK..BUT IT IS IMPORTANT TO BE AWARE OF IT.
SHOULD THIS BECOME MORE PROBABLE..WE MAY HAVE TO MOVE THE TRACK
FURTHER NORTHWARD ON FRIDAY WHICH WOULD INCREASE THE RISK FOR STORMY
CONDITIONS IN NOVA SCOTIA AND NEWFOUNDLAND. STAY TUNED FOR UPDATED
FORECASTS.

FOR THE TIME BEING..WE WILL CONTINUE WITH THE SCENARIO WITH OPHELIA
TRACKING FAR ENOUGH SOUTH OF NOVA SCOTIA AND NEWFOUNDLAND TO BRING
SOME RAINFALL. IT IS CERTAINLY MUCH TO EARLY TO SPECULATE HOW MUCH.

C. PUBLIC WEATHER

OPHELIA WILL UNDOUBTEDLY BE UNDERGOING EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION
WHEN IT ENTERS CANADIAN WATERS..THEREFORE THE RAIN WILL MOST LIKELY
BE SKEWED TO THE NORTH SIDE OF THE TRACK OVER NOVA SCOTIA AND
SOUTHERN NEWFOUNDLAND.

D. MARINE WEATHER

PREDICTED WIND RADII (NM)
TIME GALES STORMS HURRICANE
NE SE SW NW NE SE SW NW NE SE SW NW
14/06Z 140 120 105 80 70 60 60 45 30 30 45 30
14/18Z 140 120 110 80 70 60 60 45 30 30 40 30
15/06Z 120 120 100 70 70 60 50 40 30 30 30 20
15/18Z 120 120 100 90 65 60 60 50 30 30 30 20
16/06Z 120 120 100 90 60 60 60 50 30 30 30 20
16/18Z 140 140 90 90 70 80 70 40 0 0 0 0
17/06Z 140 160 100 70 70 90 60 30 0 0 0 0
17/18Z 160 180 120 60 70 110 60 30 0 0 0 0
18/06Z 160 190 130 60 50 70 40 0 0 0 0 0
18/18Z 160 200 140 50 40 60 30 0 0 0 0 0
19/06Z 160 200 150 50 40 50 30 0 0 0 0 0


END FOGARTY

http://www.atl.ec.gc.ca/weather/hurricane/index_e.html

Juan more time?

[Digiital]

Another busy week coming up.

http://www.intellicast.com/WeatherImg/CustomGraphic/hurtrac.gif

[Digiital]

Another one

This one can get interesting with the 100Kts winds.(which works out to about 185Km/h)

http://www.intellicast.com/WeatherImg/CustomGraphic/tghur2.gif

[Bogie]

And the Mayor of New Orleans is telling his people "Y'all come back now, ya hear!".

I think it would be wise for evacuated residents to stay away from home until after the hurricane season is over. New Orleans is in for a long recovery period.

[54spliff]

http://www.wwltv.com/local/stories/wwl091905suspends.735de208.html

[Digiital]

Ya who knows whats going to happen that track can move a little more to the north and as you can see above it's picking up speed the max this morning was only 100kts now it's hitting 105

[Yogi]

If it sits over the warm waters of the Gulf of Mexico's for any length of time, look out :eek:

[Mouse]

Same thing as Katrina. :(

[Digiital]

Thats right MM. And it's not far off from the track katrina took.

[Exmortis]

I was in South Houston last week to teach a class. I was almost right across the street from the Johnson Space Center (NASA mission control). I just heard that the building I was in had just received their shutdown order and are forced to evacuate. Let's hope it doesn't hit "refinery alley" there or the 6% production hit from Louisiana will seem small compared to the 24% production hit that will happen.

[Dr.Dan]

It's a good thing you're out of there before it hits Exmortis.

I know a few people that live in that area too... most of them are heading for the hills... as I would too ;)

[54spliff]

Anyone notice the winds in southern Ontario today? We are in the NE quadrant of a large high pressure system which is forcing Rita westward. Much depends on future movement of this system.

[Digiital]

WOW have you guys seen how i just jump in predicated wind speeds once it gets into the gulf. Was 105 this morning now 125Kts(231km/h)

[54spliff]

WOW have you guys seen how i just jump in predicated wind speeds once it gets into the gulf. Was 105 this morning now 125Kts(231km/h)
Yes and Miami, Dade County area is in for rough night from effects of increasing strength.

http://www.srh.noaa.gov/showsigwx.php?warnzone=FLZ074&warncounty=FLC086&local_place1=Dade+Metropolitan+County&product1=Hazardous+Weather+Outlook

Hazardous Weather Outlook





HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK FOR SOUTH FLORIDANATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL1132 PM EDT TUE SEP 20 2005FLZ063-066>075-220315-GLADES-HENDRY-PALM BEACH WESTERN-PALM BEACH EASTERN-WESTERN COLLIER-EASTERN COLLIER-WESTERN BROWARD-BROWARD METROPOLITAN-WESTERN DADE-DADE METROPOLITAN-MAINLAND MONROE-1114 PM EDT TUE SEP 20 2005THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTH FLORIDA..DAY ONE...TONIGHTTORNADOES: RAINBANDS ROTATING AROUND HURRICANE RITA WILL CONTINUETO AFFECT SOUTH FLORIDA THROUGH THE NIGHT. ISOLATED TORNADOES AREPOSSIBLE IN SOME OF THESE RAINBANDS, MAINLY OVER MIAMI-DADE,BROWARD, MAINLAND MONROE AND COLLIER COUNTIES. WATERSPOUTS CANALSO OCCUR IN THESE RAINBANDS OVER THE ATLANTIC AND GULF COASTALWATERS.WIND: WINDS WILL OCCASIONALLY GUST AS HIGH AS 40 MPH INTHUNDERSTORMS AND HEAVY SHOWERS EMBEDDED IN RAINBANDS.FLOODING: THE FLOOD POTENTIAL WILL REMAIN HIGH ACROSS PORTIONS OFSOUTH FLORIDA OVERNIGHT, ESPECIALLY OVER BROWARD AND MIAMI-DADECOUNTIES, WHERE SEVERAL INCHES OF RAIN HAVE FALLEN OVER THE PAST 24HOURS.WAVES: SEAS WILL CONTINUE AT 6 TO 8 FEET OVER THE ATLANTIC COASTALWATERS, AND THE GULF WATERS BEYOND 20 NAUTICAL MILES FROM SHORE..DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAYWINDS AND SEAS WILL CONTINUE TO SUBSIDE WEDNESDAY AS HURRICANERITA MOVES FARTHER AWAY FROM FLORIDA..SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...SPOTTERS ARE URGED TO RELAY SIGNIFICANT WEATHER AND DAMAGE REPORTSVIA STANDARD REPORTING PROCEDURES.FOR MORE INFORMATION...VISIT THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INMIAMI WEBSITE AT WWW.MIAMIWEATHER.INFO.$$

</PRE>

[Exmortis]

I know a few people that live in that area too...

So do I. In fact, one of those friends is in Mississauga this week and doesn't know if he'll have a flight home on Friday. :(

[Digiital]

Still at 125Kts this morning. They expect to call it a Cat 4 sometime today.

[Digiital]

This is interesting, check out this attachment from Nasa that shows the hot spot in the gulf, which explains why Katrina picked up some major speed.

I wonder if the same could happen with Rita.


http://www.nasa.gov/images/content/133726main_gulf_seaheight.jpg

http://www.nasa.gov/images/content/133738main_katrina_ssh_lg.jpg

[Exmortis]

It's a good thing you're out of there before it hits Exmortis.

I'm done traveling for a while, but it's getting kinda freaky... I was in Alabama when Dennis hit, I was in New-Orleans the week before Katrina hit, I was in Houston the week Rita may hit... Am I carrying a curse?

[Digiital]

So Exmortis, Call the US gov next time you travel and give them a head sup of your travel plans so they can prepare to evactuate the city.

[Dr.Dan]

I'm done traveling for a while, but it's getting kinda freaky... I was in Alabama when Dennis hit, I was in New-Orleans the week before Katrina hit, I was in Houston the week Rita may hit... Am I carrying a curse?You're just a storm magnet aren't you Ex... Just as long as they don't follow you home... we're OK.
And as Digiital said... Call the state government when you're going to be in their state to give them a heads up :ggl:

[Digiital]

BREAKING NEWS

http://us.cnn.com/

Coastal Texans leave as Rita makes Category 5

[Digiital]

Check out this latest pic, and how pronounced the eye is:


http://www.intellicast.com/WeatherImg/Satellite/hifloat6.gif

[Mouse]

Did you notice the link to the US$5 A Gallon Gas???

CNN just reported that they have shut down all operations in the Gulf.

Sure glad I filled up today for a measly $1.035.

Well, I predict it will seem measly in a few more days.

[Exmortis]

There are reports of gas at $1.80/L in Windsor. Well, it's not like we didn't see this coming. I filled up this morning.

[Mouse]

Holy **** !!!!

[Digiital]

WHAT?!???!? a BUCK EIGHTY!!! Now thats FICKING NUTS!!!!!!

HOLLY CRAP!!!!!!!

http://www.ontariogasprices.com/

Check out the prices "Highest Regular Gas Prices in the Last 24 Hours"

Saw this coming(I knew it was going up but not to 1.80!!), so I filled up the tanks last night at 11PM at 97 cents something.

[Digiital]

DAMN!!! I think they are going to need to start a new CAT like CAT 6
http://www.galveston.com/weather/categories.shtml


Cat 5 is rated as 135Knot +++

Right now Winds are at 145knots and gusts upto 175Knots(which works out to 324km/h)

[Digiital]

Windsor at a $1.95!!!!!!!

This BS is going to shutdown the country
http://www.ontariogasprices.com/

[Dr.Dan]

Cat 5 is rated as 135Knot +++

Right now Winds are at 145knots and gusts upto 175Knots(which works out to 324km/h)
And that's what... equal to an F2 tornado? :eek:
At least with a tornado it's over in a few seconds... that's going on for hours... http://www.mysmilie.de/english/green/smilies/confused/8.gif

[Mouse]

Note: There are ~23 oil refineries in and around the Galveston/Houston area.

[Dr.Dan]

It's funny that the sat image looks so bad, but the radar isn't

http://sirocco.accuweather.com/nx_mosaic_640x480c/SIR/inmaSIRSE.gif

[Mouse]

Unfortunately it's to far at sea for Doppler radar to be of any value.

That would tell a different story.

[Digiital]

Want to see all the wet stuff then take a look at this loop:
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT/float-wv-loop.html

[Mouse]

Very impressive.

Thanks. :)

[54spliff]

http://www.ghcc.msfc.nasa.gov/GOES/

[54spliff]

http://www.chron.com/cs/CDA/ssistory.mpl/metropolitan/3046592

[Digiital]

Hi Res picture:
http://rapidfire.sci.gsfc.nasa.gov/gallery/?2005264-0921/Rita.A2005264.1610.1km.jpg

[54spliff]

Up next?

"...TROPICAL WAVES...

A 1008 MB LOW IS CENTERED NEAR 11N25W MOVING W 10 KT. BROAD LOW
LEVEL CIRCULATION IS OBSERVED ON INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY.
CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION ARE FROM
11N-15N BETWEEN 22W-28W."

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATWDAT.shtml?


http://www.ghcc.msfc.nasa.gov/GOES/goeseastfullir.html

[Mouse]

Oh my.

Another bundle of laughs.

[Digiital]

Well here we go again.

http://www.intellicast.com/WeatherImg/CustomGraphic/hurtrac.gif

Notice the path. The centre part of the gulf is still pretty hot and thats where Katrina and Rita blew up. Keep an eye on this one. We might have another Cat4 really soon.

[terminatorgt]

Something tells me we're in for a cold winter because usually such an insane hurricane season is followed by a bitter winter. Hopefully not though.

[Bogie]

Yep, Digiital, been watching this one develop over the past few days. It's a slow mover, but that can be it's strength. The slower it moves over the Gulf, the stronger it could become. And slow moving Hurricanes are the deadly ones.

It has already shifted a bit to the west, since yesterday's 5 day predictions, so, hopefully, that trend will continue. The computer models seem to be inclined to head towards Mexico, and not the U.S. and north. Turning towards the Yucatan will kill it's strength-building process.

Heaven knows what our Winter will bring. I still think we are in for a relatively mild one, but heavy ****fall.

http://www.geeksmedia.com/tcm/wilma1.gif

http://www.geeksmedia.com/tcm/WILMA2.gif

[Digiital]

Whats the link to the above images?

[Mouse]

It's on the bottom of the gif.

www.skeetobiteweather.com

[Bogie]

Looks now like it's being forecasted to make a sharp right turn and head for Florida ...

http://www.geeksmedia.com/tcm/WILMA3.gif

[Mouse]

Yep, the GFDL has switched their prediction.

Nasty for Florida, but it might not be in the gulf long enough to get to a category 2.

[Bogie]

Trouble is, is that it is sitting and spinning too long. The slower it goes, the stronger it builds. My Mom's winter home is in Fort Myers - see was just missed last year around this time.

[Bogie]

Turn prediction is now even sharper to the right and build to Cat3, then 2. Wouldn't want to be living in the Florida Keys this year! Stay home, go away, back home, go away ... must feel like nomads!

http://www.geeksmedia.com/tcm/wilma4.gif

[Digiital]

WOWZERS!!

I wasn't expecting this one to blow up to a CAT 5 so soon. Sure when it got to the gulf, but not before.

This one has stronger winds then the other 2 CAT5's.


http://www.intellicast.com/WeatherImg/CustomGraphic/hurtrac.gif

[Bogie]

Yep this has the potential to be the strongest ever recorded. The bottleneck at the Yucatan and Cuba should weaken it a bit, and they forecast a weakening before slamming into Florida, but only time will tell. And only if the compter models are correct. It could fool everyone and head straight up into New Orleans again, but money is on Florida. My Mom's place is in Fort Myers, so keeping a close eye on this one.

[Digiital]

Ya it will weaken for sure, but once it gets into the gulf, turbo is going to go to CAT5 again.

[Bogie]

Ya it will weaken for sure, but once it gets into the gulf, turbo is going to go to CAT5 again.If it hits the "hot spot", which is about just north of centre. They seem to be predicting a sharp right turn and missing that catalyst. The water "cools" as it moves eastward.

[Bogie]

An analysis quoted from www.wunderground.com (http://www.wunderground.com/tropical/)


in addition to the spectacular cloud pattern observed on satellite ...An Air Force reconnaissance plane measured 168 knots at 700 mb and estimated a minimum pressure of 884 mb extrapolated from 700mb. Unofficially...the meteorologist on board the plane relayed an extrapolated 881 mb pressure and measured 884 mb with a dropsonde. This is all in association with a very small eye that has been oscillating between 2 and 4 N mi during eye penetrations. This is probably the lowest minimum pressure ever observed in the Atlantic Basin and is followed by the 888 mb minimum pressure associated with hurricane Gilbert in 1988. However...one must be very careful before it is declared a record minimum pressure until a full and
detailed calibration of the instruments and calculations is performed. So please do not jump into conclusions yet...be patient.

Wilma is a catastrophic category five hurricane that is moving over very warm waters...typical of the northwestern Caribbean Sea...and within an environment of light shear. However...despite the favorable large scale environment...Wilma is near its maximum potential intensity and further strengthening is not anticipated. Most likely...the small eye will collapse followed by slight weakening or some fluctuations in intensity. Eyewall replacement cycles will likely control the intensity for the next 2 to 3 days
while the hurricane is over the northwestern Caribbean Sea. Thereafter...once Wilma reaches the southeastern Gulf of Mexico and
encounters the westerlies and high shear...weakening should begin.

The hurricane is moving toward the west-northwest or 295 degrees at 7 knots. It seems that data from the high altitude NOAA jet ingested by models caused the track guidance envelope to shift slightly westward for the 2 to 3 day period. However...no change in track is indicated over the Gulf of Mexico and guidance continues to turn Wilma sharply to the northeast over Florida. Based on the latest guidance...the official track forecast has been shifted slightly westward but is kept on the eastern side of the envelope. This in case the track guidance shifts back to the east in the next run.

In summary...the official forecast brings the core of this catastrophic hurricane northward through the Yucatan Channel and then sharply turns a weaker hurricane to the northeast toward Florida with an increase in forward speed. No change in warnings or watches is required at this time.

[Digiital]

Ya, but looks like there is still a HOT spot north of Cuba. Here is the latest water temp

http://marine.rutgers.edu/mrs/show/?file=../regions/gulfmexico/sst_comp/noaa/2005/img/051018.291.comp.lnt.jpg

[Bogie]

Boy, lots of people would like to keep their summer outdoor pool at those temps, let alone find them in the middle of the huge gulf!

[Digiital]

and I had a few days in the summer where my pool was 37C!!!

[Bogie]

and I had a few days in the summer where my pool was 37C!!!I know this is "off topic" for Hurricanes, but this year was exceptional for heat ... I'm sure your pool hasn't been that nice ever before. When we lived in Muskoka we had quite a time keeping pool temp up (above ground - too much bedrock to do inground). It was a large above-ground and we got used to "cool water" :d

Back to the Hurricane ... amazing how they travel the "geographical" route (through the Florida/Cuba channel, or Yucatan/Cuba channel). Despite all the hurricanes this year, and other years, my friend's condo in Puerto Plata (http://www.puertoplatavilla.com) seems to escape heavy hits each time. Must be strategically located "out of harm's way".

[Glen]

My daughter and her new hubby are in the Mayan Riviera this week on their honeymoon. Looks like they should miss it hopefully.